The feeling that costs the most
FOMO buys the top
A coin doubles, it's everywhere, everyone's making money. The urge to get in is strongest exactly when the price is highest. That's not a coincidence — the crowd's excitement is what pushed it there.
The 2017 chart is this feeling drawn out
Bitcoin ran to $19,800 with front-page coverage. Then it lost 69%. Almost everyone who felt certain bought in the last third of that climb.
The test
If your reason for entering is 'it's going up', you don't have a reason. That's a description, not an edge.
Check yourself
When is the urge to buy typically strongest?
- When the price is low and quiet
- Near the top, after a big run and lots of attention
- Randomly — it has no pattern
Show the answer
Near the top, after a big run and lots of attention — Attention follows price. By the time something feels obvious, the move that made it obvious has already happened.